South Korea's political parties are preparing for a crucial election in June, with the Democratic Party of Korea hoping to launch a comeback after losing the presidential race by a razor-thin margin.
Parties are seeking to gain 17 gubernatorial and metropolitan mayoral seats, as well as hundreds of other local administrative, legislative, and educational leadership positions, in the local elections scheduled on June 1, 2018. All Koreans who were born before June 2, 2004 are able to vote in the election.
The Democratic Party won a resounding win in the most recent local elections, with the liberal party capturing 14 of the 17 metropolitan mayoral and governor positions. On top of that, it won 11 out of the 12 legislative seats that were up for grabs in the parliamentary by-elections that were held in the background.
This was primarily due to South Koreans' sustained confidence in President Moon Jae-in and his party at the time, but public opinion has since altered, and political parties are equipping themselves with new methods and attitudes in order to appeal to voters.
Those vying for important positions
Following its triumph in the presidential election, when President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol was elected, the conservative People Power Party is hoping to secure another victory in the 2019 election. In recent years, particularly since winning the April 2021 mayoral by-elections, the tide has shifted in their favor.
As part of its campaign strategy, the party is seeking to win at least 10 of the 17 metropolitan mayoral and gubernatorial seats up for grabs in the June election, and it is putting together a strong slate of candidates.
The Democratic Party, on the other hand, is adamant about staging a return following two elections in which it was unsuccessful. The party suffered a crushing defeat in the mayoral by-elections and was narrowly defeated in the race for the president.
Although it has not yet been determined who would run for which office, it is expected that both parties will field strong heavyweights, some of whom contested in their respective presidential primaries, to vie for the 17 crucial positions in the government.
Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, of the People Power Party, is standing for re-election to a fourth term in office, and he is obviously the favorite in all opinion polls, regardless of who he faces in the Democratic Party for the position.
The Democratic Party has been deliberating about who to field to run against Oh, and Rep. Park Ju-min has been mentioned as a possible candidate for the position.
Some have hypothesized that former Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung, who narrowly lost to Yoon in the presidential election, may enter the contest to try to resurrect his political career. However, Lee has not made any public statements about his intentions to run for president.
Another probable candidate for the Gyeonggi Province governorship from the liberal alliance is former Deputy Prime Minister Kim Dong-yeon, while Yoo Seong-min of the People Power Party is considered to be his opponent from the conservative camp.
Rep. Hong Joon-pyo, who formerly served as governor of South Gyeongsang Province, has declared that he will run for mayor of Daegu in the next June election, which will be held in June. He is likely to face up against current Daegu Mayor Kwon Young-jin and former Rep. Kim Jae-won from the same party before facing off against the Democratic Party's challenger for the position of mayor of Daegu.
In Busan, incumbent Mayor Park Heong-joon is expected to be re-elected since the city is one of the most important strongholds for the conservative faction, and no candidate from the liberal faction has been identified as a viable alternative.
Experts have stated that the provinces of Gangwon, North Chungcheong, South Chungcheong, and Jeju are fundamentally "swing voter" regions, which means that both political parties have a good chance of winning the respective governorships.
Most people anticipate that the Democratic Party would win the elections in the so-called Honam region of North Jeolla Province, South Jeolla Province, and the city of Gwangju in the next elections. Furthermore, the People Power Party is predicted to win positions in the provinces of North Gyeongsang and South Gyeongsang, as well as in the cities of Daegu, Ulsan, and Busan.
Parties have different priorities and methods.
The image of each political party is important in local elections, unlike presidential elections, where campaigns are staged to have voters focus on individual candidates before their associated parties, allowing voters to choose their preferred candidates by calculating how approachable, clean, and considerate a political party appears.
Parties are vying for the same number of seats on the ballot as in the last election, but they are approaching the election in vastly different ways, particularly when it comes to selecting candidates for proportional representation in each area.
The People Power Party is attempting to appeal to voters through the use of what they describe as a transparent selection mechanism. All persons interested in running for proportional representation with the party will be required to take an internal exam, and only those who score within a particular percentile will be selected to be the party's flagbearer, according to the statement.
The People Power Aptitude Test, as it is officially known, is designed to evaluate test takers' knowledge of the People Power Party's bylaws, as well as their grasp of the fundamental Korean legal system in politics and administration.
In order to run as proportional representatives at the municipal level, candidates need to score in the top 35 percent of their respective districts, while those aspiring to run at the metropolitan or gubernatorial levels must score in the top 10 percent of their respective districts.
A need for all of the party's candidates to participate in at least two debate programs is also on the table, according to the party.
The Democratic Party has not yet articulated specific election strategy, although it is certain that it will want to field as many candidates as possible from minorities and marginalized groups, such as younger generations and females. In doing so, the party seeks to convey to voters the impression that it is a group that is concerned with diversity and inclusion when it comes to carrying out politics on behalf of the people.
An activist for women's rights who is 26 years old was nominated to chair the party's emergency steering committee, signifying the party's intention to broaden the scope of candidates it considers for mayoral, governor, and councilor positions.
Who has the best chance of winning?
Most analysts believe that whatever party wins the presidential election will likely continue its winning run in the municipal elections, which implies that the People Power Party has a better chance of securing an outright majority in the June elections.
Because Yoon's presidential campaign concluded with a narrow victory for the People Power Party, some have projected that the People Power Party will not be able to secure a victory in the game. Despite this, the Democratic Party received support from Gyeonggi Province and Incheon, as well as from North and South Jeolla provinces and the city of Gwangju, among other places.
According to the analysts, even if the Democratic Party is able to put an end to its internal fighting and pick a cohesive leadership to lead the local elections, the struggle might still be tough, despite the fact that the conservative party still has a better chance of winning the elections.
Results of a study suggest that the liberal party is now perceived as more favorable to the general public, for the time being.
According to a Realmeter survey of 2,521 voters conducted from March 14 to 18, the Democratic Party received 41.3 percent of the vote, an increase of 5.7 percentage points over the previous week. The People's Power Party's share of the vote dropped by 2.5 percentage points to 40.7 percent.
Experts also point out that the general population will have a favorable opinion of the political party affiliated with the new president, according to the experts. As soon as the new president takes office, the so-called "honeymoon time" begins for Yoon, and the local elections must be held within a 20-day frame in order to be considered legitimate.
When the new president is inaugurated, voters are more likely to rally behind him and his allies, according to Eom Gyeong-yeong, head of the Zeitgeist Institute, a local political think tank. "This will undoubtedly have an influence on voter mood in the next municipal elections," he added.
"Moreover, we should keep in mind that the percentage of young and middle-aged voters who vote in local elections is smaller than in national elections, which is expected to have a negative influence on the Democratic Party, but some harm will be done to the People Power Party as well."